Category: Press Releases


Updated Crop Forecast for the 2016 South African Macadamia Crop

By Barry Christie

Crop Forecast

The Southern African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC) has updated its final crop forecast for the 2016 season after a round of data collection. The new updated forecast for the 2016 season is 38 500 tonnes of nut-in-shell (NIS; measured at 1.5% kernel moisture). Based on the rate of expansion in the industry over the past five years, it was projected that the 2016 crop would be 50 500 t. However, hot dry weather conditions and widespread hail seriously affected the 2016 crop resulting in the latest 2016 crop forecast being 24% lower than the long term projections.

Fifty three percent of the crop is expected to come from the Mpumalanga province, followed by Limpopo (26%), KwaZulu-Natal (15%) and other regions (6%). Indications are that 66% of the 2016 crop would be processed to kernel which shows that NIS exports for the 2016 season have decreased substantially. Previous years’ data have shown that approximately 50% of the crop was exported as NIS to the Far East and the new data shows a shift in support for kernel markets. Therefore, although this year’s crop is significantly smaller than in 2015, the volume of macadamias processed to kernel is expected to increase from 23 840 tonnes NIS to approximately 25 470 tonnes.

To date little rainfall has occurred throughout the major production regions during the critical flowering period. According to Walter Giuricich, chairman of SAMAC, “The risk of a reduced crop in 2017 is still great, although it is at this stage not possible to make predictions.” The final figures for the 2016 crop will be made available early in 2017 and the new year’s crop estimate will be released in March 2017.

Issued by the Southern African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC)
14 October 2016

Contact: Barry Christie
Tel: +27 (0)13 753 2077
Cell: +27(0)73 084 1772


Updated crop forecast 2016 – South African Macadamia crop industry growth figures

Crop Forecast

The Southern African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC) has updated its crop forecast after a round of data collection involving approximately 90% of the handlers in the industry. The impact of the drought, hail storms and high temperatures has been more severe than initially anticipated. The new updated forecast for the 2016 season is 36 500 tonnes of nut-in-shell (1.5% kernel moisture). This is approximately 21% lower than the 2015 crop of 46 000 tonnes NIS. However, when considering the growth of the industry in terms of new plantings each year, a projected crop for 2016 should have been 50 500 t, which means the 2016 crop is expected to be 28% smaller than the long term projections. Graeme Taylor, chairman of the SAMAC Handlers Forum, says that the overall crackout of macadamia nuts this season has been significantly affected by the drought. “Nuts are much smaller this season with thicker shells.” There is a concern that the 2017 crop might also be affected if the drought persists. “Excessive heat during flowering could play a large role in next season’s volumes as was proven in the current season’s crop. This, in combination with rain before and after flowering will play a big role in next season’s crop volumes”, Taylor said.

Mpumalanga remains the largest production region of macadamias in South Africa, with 56% of the projected crop forecast coming from this province. Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal are estimated to produce 28% and 15% respectively, with approximately 1% coming from other regions.

Industry Growth

A recent data collection exercise on tree sales from nurseries yielded interesting industry information and enabled SAMAC to update its census information. The rate at which the industry is growing is increasing. In 2014, it was estimated that the macadamia industry in Southern Africa grew by at least 1500 ha per annum. The new data suggests that the industry is currently growing by more than 2 000 ha per annum. The South African macadamia industry is now estimated to be approximately 25 000 ha in size. In 2015 72% of all nursery trees sold were destined for the Mpumalanga province. The growth in new plantings in KwaZulu-Natal is on the increase, especially in the North Coast region. The ‘Beaumont’ cultivar remains the most popular cultivar, comprising 72% of all trees sold in 2015, followed by ‘A4’ (11%), ‘816’ (6%) 788 (4%) and others (7%). The demand for ‘A4’ has increased significantly during the past few years due to its apparent high yield and kernel recovery properties.


Issued by the Southern African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC)

29 July 2016


Contact: Derek Donkin

Tel: +27 15 3066249

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