14
Oct

Updated Crop Forecast for the 2016 South African Macadamia Crop

By Barry Christie

Crop Forecast

The Southern African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC) has updated its final crop forecast for the 2016 season after a round of data collection. The new updated forecast for the 2016 season is 38 500 tonnes of nut-in-shell (NIS; measured at 1.5% kernel moisture). Based on the rate of expansion in the industry over the past five years, it was projected that the 2016 crop would be 50 500 t. However, hot dry weather conditions and widespread hail seriously affected the 2016 crop resulting in the latest 2016 crop forecast being 24% lower than the long term projections.

Fifty three percent of the crop is expected to come from the Mpumalanga province, followed by Limpopo (26%), KwaZulu-Natal (15%) and other regions (6%). Indications are that 66% of the 2016 crop would be processed to kernel which shows that NIS exports for the 2016 season have decreased substantially. Previous years’ data have shown that approximately 50% of the crop was exported as NIS to the Far East and the new data shows a shift in support for kernel markets. Therefore, although this year’s crop is significantly smaller than in 2015, the volume of macadamias processed to kernel is expected to increase from 23 840 tonnes NIS to approximately 25 470 tonnes.

To date little rainfall has occurred throughout the major production regions during the critical flowering period. According to Walter Giuricich, chairman of SAMAC, “The risk of a reduced crop in 2017 is still great, although it is at this stage not possible to make predictions.” The final figures for the 2016 crop will be made available early in 2017 and the new year’s crop estimate will be released in March 2017.

Issued by the Southern African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC)
14 October 2016

Contact: Barry Christie
Tel: +27 (0)13 753 2077
Cell: +27(0)73 084 1772
barry@subtrop.co.za

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